"How Good an Estimator is Conditional Expectation?"

Prof. Gary Wise
UT Austin

Friday, March 5th, 2:00 PM, ENS 302

wise@mail.utexas.edu


Abstract

In many studies of estimation theory it is bluntly stated that conditional expectation leads to a best minimum mean square error estimate. We will show that this claim is false. Specifically, for any real number B, we will exhibit a probability space, two bounded random variables X and Y, defined on that probability space, and a function f mapping the reals into the reals such that the mean square error using E[Y|X] to estimate Y admits a mean square error of at least B, and yet, at the same time, f(X) = Y pointwise on the underlying probability space. With this result to whet our interest, we will then go on and develop necessary and sufficient conditions for conditional expectation to do the job. These conditions should be of interest to any engineer interested in estimation theory.

Biography

Gary L. Wise received his B. A. in electrical engineering and in mathematics from Rice University in 1971. He received his M. A. and his M. S. E. in electrical engineering, with a minor in mathematics from Princeton University in 1973. In 1974, he received his Ph.D. from Princeton University. He is currently a Professor in Electrical and Computer Engineering and in Mathematics at The University of Texas at Austin. He has held visiting positions in the Department of Statistics at the University of California at Berkeley in 1989 and in 1991, where he came by the nickname of Dr. Counterexample. His first book was written with Eric Hall and is entitled "Counterexamples in Probability and Real Analysis".


A list of Signal and Image Processing Seminars is available at from the ECE department Web pages under "Seminars". The Web address for the Signal and Image Processing Seminars is http://anchovy.ece.utexas.edu/seminars